Paragraph 1：After three hundred years of impressive gains in wealth and population, Europe’s economy began to slow around 1300. Several factors accounted for the decline. One of the most important, though perhaps the least dramatic to relate, was a shift in climate. The remarkably fair weather of the twelfth and thirteenth centuries took a decided turn for the worse in the fourteenth. Chronicler’s comments, tree-ring examination, and pollen analysis all indicate that over the course of the fourteenth century Europe’s average annual temperature declined approximately two degrees Celsius, which may sound like very little at first, but if one considers current projections about the possible effects of global warming, in which the average annual temperature shift is only one degree Celsius, a rather different impression emerges. As the temperature dropped, shortening the summer growing season and affecting the resilience of certain vegetable species, the wind and rain increased. This meant that crop yields declined precipitously and the agricultural economy began to contract. As food supplies dwindled, costs rose accordingly and cut into the amount of capital that people had available for other purchases or investments. This in turn added to the gradual constriction of the commercial economy.
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