Earthquake Prediction
Accurate prediction of earthquakes is not currently possible, although intensive research is proceeding in many areas.
Two types of earthquake prediction are theoretically possible. The first type is long-term forecasting, in which the probability of an earthquake along a particular segment of a within a certain time interval is calculated by studying seismic gaps and historical records of earthquakes that have occurred along that fault segment. By plotting the number of earthquakes within specific time intervals against their magnitudes, diagrams can be constructed for a local area. From this plot it is possible to determine the recurrence interval, or the average time interval between earthquakes of a specific magnitude. Predictions can then be made that an earthquake of that magnitude has a high probability of occurrence within a specified time interval if the date of the last earthquake is known.
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